the name of irene that informs the president, cutting his vacation short. martha: there is discussion about him coming back early. he may have to. so far the white house has no change in plans. this near-death experience in california, a camera mounted on a high eed train, shows it speeding towards the station as a teenager speeds across the track, made it to the platform by the skin of his teeth. gregg: that's really dumb. don't do that. martha: thank you for being here, everybody. "happening now" starts right now. have a good day. jenna: we start with this fox news alert out of libya, brand new developments, on the one hand, you have reports, reports that the rebels inside libya have this man, qaddafi, surrounded in the residential compound. those reports are unsubstantiated at this time and we have this just coming to us from the associated press, the spokesman for moammar qaddafi, telling the a.p. that qaddafi is safe, healthy, his morale is high, he is indeed leading the

battle for our freedom, and independence every day. so one consistencey in the story seems to be the inconsistencies of reports coming out from inside libya. we have a live report from our very own steve harrigan, straight ahead. first a fox news weather alert and brand new information coming in on the track of hurricane irene. it's one of our big stories this week. we're so glad you're with us, i'm jenna lee. rick: i'm rick folbaum in for jon: jon scott and irene isa category three, growing stronger by the minute as the monster storm puts the entire east coast on alert, battering the bahamas after roaring through the carribean and now massive storm threats are underway here from evacuations in north carolina to the u.s. navy issuing a code alpha and ordering ships to leave the norfolk navy station. plus all along the seaboard emergency rues getting sandbags ready for potential

flooding. we have fox news coverage, janice dean is live at the weather center, phil keating is live in nassau, bahamas. let's start with janice. >> reporter: we just got the 11:00 advisory and this storm is still a category three, which is a little surprising because it has been going through fluctuations, an eye wall replacement cycle, and ultimately that's the hurricane's way of restructuring and strengthening. it has very warm water ahead of it, so there is a chance that this could become increasingly stronger. let's take a look at the storm, you can actually see the outer bands moving into south florida, this storm has now made its way towards the north northwest, so it's beginning to move up the coastline, which is what we expected, and i want to make this clear right now, that most of the computer models and the tracks are becoming very clear in that there's not a lot of discrepancy here. i do not think it's a possibility that this storm is going to go out to sea. it is going to make a

landfall, and more than likely, it's going to make two landfalls, one across the outer banks and another across the northeast coastline. that could be coastal new jersey, that could be long island, that could be southern new england. so if you live across the northeast, you need to make your preparations now. you need to make your plans. because this storm is coming. and it's going to possibly be very disruptive. so -- destructive. here the latest, category three, very warm waters here, we could see a little bit of intensification, the hurricane center has said it's going to be category three for the next 12-24 hours, then saturday and sunday, making landfall across northern carolina, the outer banks region, saturday into sunday. as we go fort out in -- further out in time, to the northeast, new jersey, you're in that center cone here so if indeed we have a landfall across new jersey, it's going to be around a -- 7:00, 8:00 on sunday. if it comes to new york, it's going to be later than

that, new england, later than that. so that's one discrepancy i have is the exact timing across the northeast is yet to be determined but we do indeed think this is going to be a strong hurricane, category two or maybe a strong category one storm surge and flooding could be potentially devastating and destructive across all of these big cities across the northeast. back to you rick. rick: janice, our viewers have a lot of questions so you've been kind enough to agree to go into our chat room. america's asking is where you go on the happening now home page of fox news.cole and janice will be taking your questions and corresponding with you later in the show. jenna: that's great, we're looking forward to that j.d. for a preview of the storm you don't have to travel any further than 200 miles from florida. irene is pummeling the bahamas right now and we're getting reports of at least two settlements there flattened by the power of this storm. phil keating is live in the bahamas with more, braving the elements for us, phil. >> reporter: absolutely. things are really -- things

were hellatious this morning as we woke up in the 6:00, 7:00, # o'clock hour. if you saw that, you saw me getting battered but the speeds have slowed down in nassau to 35, 50 miles per hour but it's packing a good punch around the eye of the hurricane which has to have moved past, north the latitude of nassau and marchs northwest and northward into the northwestern sections of this 700 island nation that is the bahamas. damage a-- damage assessments in the eastern bahama, which hurricane irene slammed into, pounded through the night last night, some reports are the administrator of the islands saying there is -- there is a metalment, lovely bay, 80 percent of the homes are now destroyed, there are reports of a lot of power out over there, hopefully no loss of life, no reports of that yet. here in nassau, there are

reports of downed lines, power outages, trees blocking roadways, but overall, the damage assessment teams are really just now getting out, now that the winds have died down here. it's really now the brunt of this hurricane, slamming the northwestern islands of the bahama, but for a taste of what's coming to the east coast, well, it was very strong, very loud winds, a lot of rain and it's a slow moving storm, about 12, 13 miles per hour, and so it was truly the rattling of your bones that the national weather center predicted it would be yesterday. so it's going to be a monstrous weekend along the east coast of the united states, riding it out here this morning in the bahamas, we made it through, but it was certainly a wild ride. back to you. martha: nice to have things -- things a little -- jenna: nice to have things a little calmer for you, you earned that over this morning. phil keating is live with us throughout the day today.

rick. rick: thanks jenna. a fox news alert, with our other big story this thursday, an unconfirmed report out of libya that rebels have surrounded qaddafi's compound, a building right in his compound. steve harrigan is streaming live from tripoli with the very latest. steve. >> reporter: rick, conflicting reports on possible locations for colonel qaddafi, rebel fighters in the streets saying they have him holed up in an apartment building, along with his sons, near the qaddafi compound, a spokesman saying it's not true, he's fine, safe and healthy. we've seen real credibility gaps throughout both sides on this conflict so we're going to have to wait on that one. meantime british defense minister saying nato is lending assets to the rebels as far as reconnaissance, intelligence, trying to help in tracking colonel qaddafi, also the bounty on qaddafi's head, put up ilibyan businessman, has now gone over $2 million, as that hunt for qaddafi continues in the streets of tripoli.

the celebration continues. >> they arrived in homemade vehicles, homemade weapons. fired in the air, rocket launchers, antiaircraft missiles like merry go rounds, women, children, men enjoy the show, some cover their ears but the message, expressed with guns, cars, anything at hand, it's clear, we've won the war. >> we've waited for this moment. we are free now. this is dictator! we're finished. we've finished with the dictator now. this is the last dictator in the world. we are free! >> the transitional government here is asking for money. they say they need it quickly to avoid a dangerous destabilization, italy, the latest country to unfreeze libyan assets, also infusing $500 million in cash for the transitional government here in tripoli. back to you in new york, rick. rick: steve harrigan, live in trao*eup lee -- tripoli,

thanks. jenna: fox news alert, jobless numbers jumped 5000 this week, to 417,000 americans filing for first time unemployment. the increase is blamed on a strike which pushed thousands to seek unemployment benefits, the number, even that, still high for some analysts. also another fox business alert on brand new numbers on the housing front, three out of every ten home sales were properties in some state of foreclosure over the last several months. that's higher than the same time last year, according to realty track that keeps an eye on these things. this is a big drag on housing prices in general and one of the reasons of whether we hit bottom in this market. mortgage rates jumped slightly this week but remain near or at historic lows and now word today that the obama administration may consider back ago mortgage refinance plan for millions of homeowners. is that a good idea? refinancing for millions of people, lower rates,

right? more money in their pocket? >> we already have historically low rates, remember, the fed has set interest rates basically at zero right now, so the government thinks since they are so much in the tank for so many foreclosed homes or homes about to be foreclosed, maybe allow those people to take advantage of those low rates to refinance and the government would assist in the refinancing. the problem is the government is so deep in the housing market, we also own fannie and freddie. remember we nationalized fannie mae and freddie mac which held those mortgage-backed bonds. that would drive down the price of the mortgage-backed bonds so on the one hand we'd be helping homeowners under water, on the other hand, we would be hurting the american taxpayer in the tank for these mortgage-backed securities. jenna: that was my next question of whether this -- will this cost anything. >> the point is, again, some people will save money, other people will pay the cost. in the end, when the government gets so involved in the market, i think we are all losers. it's like giving yourself a transfusion from one arm to the other, you'll always end

up losing. you can't give yourself a transfusion and expect to be on top. i've got -- you've got to get infusion and the free market is not part of this deal. jenna: one of the issues that came up with government involvement and trying to help the mortgage industry during the crisis is that homeowners just couldn't get help, there was a bureaucracy problem, and simply, the system wasn't set up to help. but the question becomes, then, have we learned from that? in some ways, it looks like mortgage help is picking up and more people are being helped to stay in their homes. >> you mentioned the bureaucracy. the bureaucracy has done nothing but grow in the past couple of years. how many different programs have there been for the government to, one, try to prevent crisis from happening, it hasn't worked, two, try to prevent team from going into foreclosure, it hasn't worked. we've had an alphabet soup of the government getting involved and all of it has failed. the more government gets involved, the worse off we are. jenna: this caught my eye in the "new york times", some

officials fear that promoting mass refinancing today could spook investors and make borrowing more expensive for everyone in the future. would use -- why wo that happen if about interest rates are so low? >> because they're affected by different things. the fed is trying to put a cap on interest rates going up, but the market forces are stronger than any bureaucracy, including the federal reserve board, to prevent it from happening, so those prices are going up naturally as a result of what's happening in the world economy. you try to do one thing. it's like a balloon, you push in one area, it comes out the other. that's the way the market works. you can't prevent that balloon from popping out somewhere else. jenna: we'll see as we get more details, but thanks for the preview. we want to look at the markets. you have a lot of shows on the fox business network, 4:00 p.m. eastern time, with liz claman, also have later on, america's nightly scoreboard, those are the previews. if you could bring up the dow quickly, i want to show you, david, it looks like things were turning better with warren buffet buying a lot of shares in bank of

america, but now lower. why is that? >> there was concern about germany. there was a rumor that germany might be downgraded of the if that happened it would be awful. of course that's been denied by the rating agency, they say no, we're not going to downgrade germany. then joseph bigglett, he got the nobel prize, worked in the clinton administration,es suggesting there might be a double-dip, we may be going into a double-dip. a lot of rumors circulating in the market. the market is scared. when anything happens at all in a negative fashion, the warbgt goes down and we saw gold drop at over 100 bucks. jenna: looks like some air coming out of that balloon. david, thank you. right now it looks like the market is like an episode of gossip girl. with the reports, what are you going to do? >> rick: you're going to have to fill me in on goesive girl. jenna: come on! >> r*bg rick i swear. all right the we're not even 15 minutes into the hour and we've got a lot more straight ahead. coming up, brand new developments on the other top stories that we're

following for you today. authorities, releasing the last known photos of a missing woman in aruba, the clues they can offer as to what happened to robin gardner. an eye opening memoir by former vice president dick cheney, the no holds barred revelations. we'll tell you about that. and continuing coverage of the monster storm irene, janice will be answering your questions. harris, what are people asking? >> reporter: a lot of people concerned about how slowly this storm is moving and whether or not it might spend a lot of time over land. that's one of the top questions. go to foxnews.com home page, you'll see we're doing a ton of coverage on hurricane irene and front and center you'll see happening now's live chat, you want to click on that for america's asking, and i'm 30 miles south of atlantic city so i guess i'll get hit hard. we're taking your questions for meteorologist janice dean, right now, on "happening now". stay close.

jenna: welcome back, everybody. right now new information on crime stories we're keeping an eye on for you here, out to los angeles, the hearing today in the upcoming trial for conrad murray, you might remember, he's the doctor charged with involuntary manslaughter in michael jackson's death. his lawyers are seeking to get the jury sequestered during the trial. out to aruba, releasing the last known photos of robin gardner, the maryland woman who vanished without a trace, police say the pictures show gardner with the man suspected in her disappearance and it was taken on august 2nd, the day she vanished. >> in san francisco, barry bonds and his lawyers head to go court, baseball's home run king seeking to get his conviction for obstruction of justice tossed out in the steroids scandal. rick: well, we are getting some new insight into the inner workings of the bush white house. former vice president dick cheney, releasing his memoirs next week, apparently details some

pivotal moments with the president and other members of the administration and is already warning, quote, heads will be exploding all over washington once the book comes out. fox news national security analyst k.t. mcfarland joining us, thank you for coming in. "new york times" got their hands on a copy of this and had a couple of nuggets that are included in this memoir but in national security circles what's the buzz? >> here's the thing. this is the one memoir everybody has been waiting for because he never talks. he didn't give interviews to reporters, he didn't leak things to chroniclers, he didn't give a lot of speeches, didn't do a lot of media, so he's the guy. and he's the guy who really has no the last 30 years of american foreign policy been at the center of everything, watergate, the ford administration, the first iraq war, the second iraq war, all the bush crises, both bush crises, so he's the guy everybody wants to read, and apparently, he -- he doesn't hold my holds, he

goes after everybody, he's talking about some being disloyal and in over their heads. lick rick -- r*bg rick he says that cond -- condi rice the naive in negotiating, he said that colin powell was good for the country because he had gone behind the administration and criticized the war in iraq. >> having been in favor of the war in iraq when it started, then turned and said well, you break it, you own it, about the iraq war. i think what you'll see from cheney is he'll go after a lot of people, he has no regrets, he doesn't feel bad about the water boarding, he said we got important valuable information from him. >> saved lives, he said. >> saved lives. so no regrets, i would title that memoir. rick: that sounds like the former vice president. let me ask you quickby will the -- quickly about the reports out of libya, because the vice president also talked about what happened in iraq after the invasion there. wondering if there are any parallels or lessons learned from the aftermath of that statue of saddam coming down versus on the righthand side of the screen, the pictures

from inside the compound where they were jumping on top of the head of the statue of qaddafi the other day. what mistakes were made, perhaps, in iraq that we should not repeat in libya? >> the mistake that was made in iraq was -- there were a couple of them. one, it was the focus on a lot of the new people coming in, the so called rebels against saddam hussein, to settle scores, whether it was the shiites coming in and wanted to settle scores with the sunnis. they were far more focused on revenge than they were on organizing their country and getting things back to some kind of stability. the second mistake, and major mistake that was made, is that when the new team came in, the provisional government, they fired all of the baathist military and all of the people who were in the bureaucracy, and not just the top guys, but everybody who had a gun. they said go home, you're fired. rick: and they became the insurgents. >> they became the insurgents. everybody had a gun and nobody had a salary. so the mistakes that were made there are very similar to what could happen in the next two days in tripoli.

rick: sounds like the hard part is about to start in libya. >> that's -- that's exactly right. rick: k. it, thank you. jenna: down to florida, where casey anthony is back and reporting for probation. the latest from the news desk just ahead. as we were just talking about, there are reports about closing in on qaddafi, what's the bigger picture, the bigger strategy for the entire middle east region? we go in depth, next.

jenna: a fox news alert and update on the developments in hurricane irene that's headed towards the east coast. we're now hearing from the governor of north carolina that the governor is declare ago state of emergency, effective along the north carolina coast. east of i95 is what the press release says, and the reason for this is the

governor says hurricane irene poses a significant threat to the state and wants to be preventative, to get mention in place as this storm comes closer to north carolina. tropical storm right now, obviously, janice dean was saying, as you can see by the storm track, looks like it's going to be a pretty big storm that hits right at the states. we'll keep you up to date as we hear more, but the governor of north carolina declaring a state of emergency. rick: casey anthony is back in florida, reportedly to begin probation for a fraud check conviction. >> reporter: this just coming in, rick, because the florida department of corrections is holding a news conference as we speak, and i'm able to, with our producers in florida, get a little bit of readout on what's being said in that news conference. it was 6:00 p.m. eastern time last evening that casey anthony reported to court for the provisions of the court. she told the officer that she intended to do well on

probation. she has to live in the same county where she's reported, though the details of her whereabouts, obviously for her own safety, according to jose baez, her attorney who you see at the right of the screen, saying he's concerned for her safety, with threats coming at her, meantime, she does have to seek employment. we know through our own geraldo rivera's reporting and talking with her attorney that she may do some sort of educational program rather than employment but for right now, the breaking element of this is that the florida department of corrections is saying she has done what she was supposed to do, she's reported for probation. we don't know yet what she'll be doing. she has to check into the office in person within the first five days of each month. so she may petition, she may petition to move out of state, but then she'd have to do a heck of a lot of traveling to keep up with the probation qualifications. rick, i'm still on it as that news conference brings more information of this

breaking news, we'll bring it to everybody. but the headline is she's done what she's supposed to do. jenna: some new information out of libya now, we're getting reports that a key rebel commander, a former umir of an al-qaeda link group is active in the area, this adds to the growing fears that a terror group could get its hands on qaddafi's most dangerous weapons, stockpiles of deadly chemicals, schulz of shoulder-fired missiles. nas correspondent catherine herridge follows this live from washington. what do we know? >> reporter: thank you jenna. he's becoming a more familiar face to the media, identifying himself as commander of the libyan rebels, sheikh abdul hakim bahaaj is from an al-qaeda-affiliated group. this is footage from the battle in tripoli, but bahaaj is linked to an islamic group, the lisj, he

was founded in 1995 to set up an islamist state or emirate inside libya, u.s. state department has designated the lifg a terrorist organization with links to al-qaeda, belhaaj fought against the soviets in 19 -- 199 #, he lived and travels to 22 countries, including pakistan, turkey and the sudan, was arrested in malaysia in 22 on -- 20044 and later imprisoned in libya as part of a rehabilitation program. military analysts say bahaaj underscores a larger problem >> we don't know who's going to be in charge of the overall government. by all accounts right now, the very fabric of society is falling apart, and this is where we got in trouble in iraq. >> reporter: for context, the lisg claimed in march it was supporting the revolt against qaddafi and now under the national transitional council. then the lsig rebranded

itself as the libyan movement and denied connection with al-qaeda but data seems to suggest otherwise with this military commander. jenna: do we tend to underestimate the endurance of some of these groups and the way they reinvent themselves? >> a former weapons inspector said truer words were never said, he said it's like water, it takes the path of least resistance and aorp dealing with a sinking enemy, you move one way, it moves one way, so the groups are flexible and adaptable and often think out of the box. skwr*pb skwr pb thank you very much for that report. >> reporter: you're welcome. rick: we are tracking hurricane irene and right now that storm is a category three hurricane, already tearing through the bahamas, leaving behind major destruction in its march across the carribean. next in line, as jenna was just telling you, north carolina, where they have already declared a state of emergency, they are getting ready for irene's fury.

we'll have the latest coming up. kinda. ♪ the charcoal went out already? [ sighs ] forget it. [ male announcer ] there's more barbeque time in every bag of kingsford charcoal. kingsford. slow down and grill.

rick: and welcome to the fox acquisitions room where we get pictures from all over the world, and we're focusing on a lot of these storm shots for you. this is remote 273 right here, a live picture of daytona beach, florida. there's a lot of white sur. , a lot of -- surf, a lot of clouds up ahead. there are a lot -- there are not

a lot of people on that beach. and there this is the radar mapt remote 294, and this is where you can see the projected path of hurricane irene is it is expected to reach landfall around saturday morning around the cape hatteras area. of course, we're keeping a close eye on all of this for you. we'll bring you the very latest. jenna, over to you. jenna: for more on the sheer power of hurricane irene, we have a look at some of the sights and sounds of this storm. [background sounds] [inaudible conversations]

jenna: looks like a movie preview, except you have the full feature coming up, right, guys? janice, you've been answering some of the questions on the chat. harris, there's been a lot of questions about this storm. >> reporter: absolutely. we had janice get on the chat, so the minute she aed -- answered the question about what's the next storm, it's who? >> reporter: it's who. we're just about to reach peak season of hurricanes, so i would expect to see jose and a bunch of his friends and irene's friends within the next couple of weeks. things are very active, and these storms are just rolling off like trains. >> reporter: drew dog asked earlier, i'm 30 miles south of atlantic city, will i get hit hard? >> reporter: let's put up that cone of uncertainty, and i will show you where we could see the potential for a hurricane across the northeast, do we have that

cone we've been using? there it is. we think a direct hit across the outer banks saturday, into sunday, and that's a category two, and that's the chesapeake bay. and there's d.c. and atlantic city and new jersey. there's a possibility that this actually could make landfall across southern new jersey. so that cone of uncertainty there -- >> reporter: atlantic city, cape may, beautiful areas down there. >> reporter: absolutely. and just because we're looking at the center of the storm, tropical storm force winds extend 250 miles away from the center of the storm, so you're going to feel at the very least tropical storm strength winds. >> reporter: real quickly, janice watson writes, will that affect the earthquake area? it looks like it will at least with the high winds and rains. >> reporter: absolutely. if that storm hugs the coastline, we're dealing with a really destructive problem for all of the big cities, cities that aren't used to this kind of

thing. folks across the gulf coast states are probably laughing at us. i think there's a certain amount of complacency near the nice. near the northeast. i'll tell you, we have bottled water, formula for the baby. i'm thinking roads are going to be flooded, and we're not going to have power for days. >> reporter: and you know what? a couple of things that are trending right now have to do with the water temperature of the ocean, so we'll talk more about that. let's go over to jenna now. jenna: obviously, a big, developing story for us. in the meantime, we have this big story as well. libyan rebels are claiming they've surrounded moammar gadhafi in a residential compound in tripoli. the reports, though, cannot be confirmed. this is typical of news from that area, and there's still intense fighting in the streets there. we have to mention that. our next guest says how gadhafi is captured, how he is treated really matters not just for libya, but for the rest of the region as well.

let's bring in former california congresswoman, jane harmon, who's the president now of the wilson center. why does it matter? >> it matters a lot. because in this case if nato assets, there are british special forces on the ground, are the ones who surround him and capture him, then it will be viewed as outside folks causing regime change in libya. if libyan people liberate their own country, then it will be viewed in a much better light as internal push, as an internal push for regime change which is the way regime change should happen. i would hope he would be captured and transferred to the hague where he should be tried for a war crimes. that's the best answer here, not something ghoulish as we saw in iraq. and i doubt that he will want to go peacefully, so this is going to be very, very tricky because he's talked about lava and fire and so forth and he's, as you said in a prior news block, there are a lot of weapons

stocks and chlorine and mustard gas, and it worries me that this could be some self-generated fireworks show that would be very unfortunate. jenna: let me just check with the control room. the video we were showing was the inside of gadhafi's compound, guys? yes,s the. we were running some video of destruction in the area, and that's inside gadhafi's compound which is an interesting look on a life we don't know a lot about. something else we don't know a lot about is the internal forces inside of libya and whether or not we really do have an extremist islamic element there, whether or not al-qaeda is active there. what can you tell us about that? >> let me say one more thing about the internal forces. according to news reports this morning in "the washington post," the transitional government based in benghazi has detailed plans and actively is sending text messages in to tripoli telling people not to loot buildings. those are the buildings that will be part of the government

in the future. i hope the looting and that kind of behavior stops. this is a time for the libyan forces to show some maturity. on the presence of terror groups and extreme forces, i would assume they are there. let's remember that in the early days of our identification of high-value targets for al-qaeda, one of the high-value targets was named barrage from libya. libya was a source of foreign fighters to the al-qaeda movement in iraq and pakistan, and i assume they're still there. i also assume there are mercenaries who have been paid by gadhafi from mauritania and malley. there are sophisticated weapons, rpgs which are, apparently, being fired in the green zone which is pretty terrifying, and there was at least one scud missile, so i would assume many more, and i think there are poison gases somewhere. so this is, literally, no pun intended, a volatile situation there. jenna: to be certain. congresswoman, you wrote back in

martha libya can't just be viewed as a one off, we have to look at our broader strategy in the region, and based on what you're telling us on libya internally, would you support a strategy that is more defensive or offensive in the region as far as our american involvement in the formation of a new government? >> >> well, as i said then and i've said since, i think you have to think of a matrix. on one side is our values. surely, we don't want humanitarian catastrophes anywhere, and we did the wrong thing in rwanda by not intervening sometime ago, and some of the policymakers now were part of that mistake. but on the other side of the matrix is our interest, our strategic interest. and if you map these countries which are different from each other on that matrix, libya doesn't come out very high. i mean, because it doesn't threaten our strategic interests. a country like syria does, yemen does because there are people in yemen actively plotting to send and actively sending materials

in colloquial english into america that are inspiring home grown terrorists here. so yemen threatens us directly. syria's a back door from iran to lebanon and then to israel, and it harbors two very, very toxic terror groups, hamas and hezbollah. you can't say those things about libya. so my point is this is a zero sum game. we have limited resources in terms of people, in terms of money. everyone gets that. and limited brain cells. and we really have to focus on the top targets for us. when you look back on what we did in libya and how this has flayed out -- played out, my view is we might have been able to do this with very strong, coercive sanctions which, in the end, i think might have been a better precedent to tons who are -- countries who are not a direct threat to our strategic interests. now we want nato assets on the case in our country, and that may not be available. jenna: congresswoman, you give

us a lot to think about, especially with the sanctions we just placed on syria, another place of interest. we're taking a look at live pictures in tripoli there. black smoke once again billowing over the skyline. we look forward to having you back on to talk about some of these very important issues as we continue to follow these developments in the middle east. we'll be right back with more "happening now." >> thank you. medicare. it doesn't cover everything.

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rick: and you are officially inside america's election headquarters. just over a year before folks head to the polls to vote for the next president. a lot can change between now and then, of course. we've seen a greater political divide now more than ever, and looking at the electoral college, some states will have a great impact on the outcome. joining us now is larry sabato, director for the center of politics at the university of virginia. good to see you, larry, thanks for being here. president obama won in the 2008 by expanding the map and really going after some states that

traditionally democrats have sort of conceded to republicans. will that kind of strategy work in 2012? >> well, of course, as you noted, we're 15 months out, 14 months out, and it's difficult to see what the conditions will be. fundamentally, remember, the electoral college has loads of critics, but those critics don't include political analysts. we love talking about the electoral college because it gives us 51 separate elections to discuss. that's what really matters here. will the electoral college majority that barack obama achieved that was enormous in 2008, will it stay the same, expand or contract? well, today, obviously, most of us would bet contract. there are states like north carolina, particularly indiana that i think he's very unlikely to carry again. rick: a couple of states, seven actually, that you have in your crystal ball as saying the toss-ups; colorado, florida, iowa, nevada, new hampshire, ohio and virginia,

pennsylvania's not on that list s that not a toss-up? >> not yet. it may be by the time we come to the general election. but the ones you named, rick, have 85 electoral votes. those states are the swingiest of the swing states. they're the ones that we'd focus on the most if we knew the results in those states today, we could call the election because it would be pretty obvious. and they're all different, but they have something in common. right now because of demographics and other factors they are nicely balanced between the two parties, and they tend to go with the national drift. rick: i'm wondering how much it's going to matter who the republicans put up as the nominee, what effect that could have. if we look at a gop nominee is more from the tea party side of the remin party or more from the more traditional establishment side of the gop, how much does that matter? >> it matters less than people think. am i going to argue that it

doesn't matter at all who the republicans pick, put up? of course not. the experience, the qualifications, the gaffes, all the things that a candidate may have in his or her package matter in the end. but, look, elections are about the presidential incumbent. that's going to be true in 2012, and i think in the end you're going to have most republicans taking up the vast majority of the states that a republican would carry. rick: larry. i've got to run. larrywh sabato, thanks. get more with honey bunches of oats. four nutritious grains come together for more taste, more texture, more healthy satisfaction. have a bowl of happy. or annuity over 10 or even 20 years? call imperial structured settlements. the experts at imperial can convert your long-term payout into a lump sum of cash today.

jenna: fox news alert on hurricane irene coming to us by way of fema. the fema director saying irene will not just be a coastal storm, it will have an impact well inland as well. this also coming from fema, evacuation ordered have started

for irene and more are expected places like daytona, florida, that you see right there in the top box. we'll keep you up-to-date with this storm barreling towards the united states as we get them. rick: meantime, the search is underway for the remains of russia's unmanned soyuz spacecraft after it crashed into the siberian forest. as we said, it was unmanned, so no one was onboard, but similar rockets are scheduled to take off starting in september with astronauts along for the ride. now that may be delayed. is that a good idea? tom jones is a former nasa astronaut, authority of the book called "skywalking." do you trust the russians to take care of our astronauts? >> i do. i think that they have as big an interest in protecting their coz ma naught -- cosmonauts as protecting our astronauts going to the space station. the thing that worries me is not

the russians' cooperation, although they do have a tendency to be secretive about their embarrassing failures. they've got to come clean with this one just like we did with the columbia accident back in 2003. this is our only link to the space station, and now it's grounded, and that's going to impact the science work aboard the station. rick: critics will say this is the problem, now we have to rely on the russians and other countries to help us out with this. what do you say to those folks? >> i would join them in criticizing the decision to go down to one link. you know, we had for the 15 years of the space station program so far the space shuttle, cargo and crew and the russians shipping cargo and crew up on these soyuz boosters. so we had a back-up plan. now we're down to this single link, and nasa was told by the white house you will not have a back-up plan, the congress didn't insist we have a back-up plan, so now we have this only one choice. it's going to be about five years before american commercial

companies can supply an alternate means of getting crews up there. rick: that was my question as we wrap this up, tom, does this give the private industry a little kick in the you know what to get moving faster and get private spacecraft up in the air? is. >> yeah. certainly, the pressure is on for the commercial companies to first launch cargo later this year, and then crew transport. nasa's got to focus on that to get an alternate means to back up the soyuz. rick: tom jones is a former astronaut joining us this morning. always good to talk to you. >> you're welcome. jenna: major developments in the battle for libya. however, we just heard -- maybe -- from gadhafi himself. is this really the end of the line for the dictator? is we have breaking details straight ahead. [ music playing, indistinct conversations ]

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we're so glad you're with us, everybody, i'm jenna lee. rick: and i'm rick folbaum in for jon scott. hurricane irene tearing through the bahamas with the potential to turn into a powerful category four storm as it moves. the latest advisory has irene ght on track towards the carolinas with the potential to hit new jersey, new york and new england over the weekend. the hurricane already kicking up waves in florida. irene is expected to make landfall in north carolina in just about 48 hours from now. right now evacuation plans and emergency preparations are taking up people's minds up and down the east coast. jenna: take a look at that storm radar, right? a big storm right there. and the navy also issuing a code alpha. it ordered all of its ships based along the virginia coastline to deploy to sea in the preparation for the hurricane. as rick mentioned, expected to make landfall sometime this weekend. john roberts is live in kitty

hawk, north carolina, with the latest. hi, john. oh, unfortunately, john is not good. it could be weather related, we don't really know. oftentimes this happens when we have some unpredictableness with the story and, well, obviously, with some of our own satellite as well. janice dean is back with us, and you've been answering viewer questions throughout the last hour. one of the questions that comes up here in the newsroom is that when we hear that from fema that evacuations could be happening and to prepare for that, the question we all have is, okay, so when would they be issuing that? if we need to be prepared, we need to have a plan, and the timing seems, well, tough to judge. what do we do in this situation? >> reporter: i think they want to do it at the last possible moment because you know what happens especially in a place like new york city or long island, panic takes place. people start to panic, and sometimes that takes over, and people are jamming up the highways and the bridges when they don't necessarily need to.

so i would suspect that low-lying areas that could be susceptible to storm surge, massive flooding, areas across long island which are, you know, just at or above flood stage, at or above sea level that could be very vulnerable to storm surge, they're looking at that right now, and i would suspect within the next 12-24 hours you're going to start to hear emergency management folks and be, certainly, the governor and the mayors talking about what they need to do. i would suspect that if you live in the hurricane-prone areas, you need to know what your zone is in terms of, you know, the flood damage, the possible storm surge, that kind of thing. so know what your hurricane evacuation plan is. um, i was just speaking earlier on about what my husband and i are doing. we've got the generator, and we are expecting, we are expecting for the worst. and i hope the message that i can give people is you need to know your plan now, and when the emergency management officials come on and tell you you need to react on that plan, then you

need to do it. jenna: janice, what do you think, though, for some of the big cities like a new york city, you mentioned long island right outside of manhattan, but you have philadelphia, washington, d.c., do you expect to see -- and i know it's a tough thing to make a guess on, and we don't want to guess, but is there a probability we could see evacuations in major cities like that? >> reporter: yes. i definitely think there could be. one of the local forecasters here in new york said prepare for the worst case scenario. and we haven't seen a hurricane of this magnitude come close really in a generation. so, you know, know what you're going to do, know what your escape route is, know what you're going to do if power is out for days, and, you know, and then just listen to officials. because we don't want to cause mass panic. that would be a bad thing. people, you know -- i know that we had the same thing with rita. remember rita in houston? there was kind of a mass panic, and everyone got on the highways and roadways and just jammed

everything up. we need to be calm for the time being until the officials tell us when and where we need to leave. jenna: is there till a chance that the hurricane is just tropical storm? is that still a scenario that's out there? >> reporter: i think there's a possibility it could be downgraded, but now all those computer models that we look at from day-to-day, they're coming to some consolidation. they're all in agreement that we are going to have a land-falling hurricane at this point across two areas, the outer banks and somewhere across the northeast. it could be as far south as new jersey, it could be as far north as new england, coastal new england, and long island certainly looks like it's in that bull's eye for possibly a strong category one storm. jenna: janice, you've really set us up well for our next guest, something we're going to be talking a lot about, rick. rick: we are. the head of the national hurricane center says there is

still a possibility that irene could be a category two when it moves into southern new jersey over the weekend, and now folks all up and down the east coast are doing what janice has advised which is prepare for the worst. emergency crews are checking out bridges, they're prepping evacuation routes, getting sandbags ready in case of nodding that may -- flooding that may come, and here is some reaction from up in massachusetts. >> obviously, every three hours we know more than we knew three hours ago, and we're just trying to stay on top of it. >> the forecast has put the fear in some people. >> you got enough batteries and propane? >> i hope for today and tomorrow, and i'm supposed to be getting a truck either later tonight or tomorrow afternoon rig rick so what are some of the ways you can protect yourself from a hurricane this size? president and ceo of the insurance institute for business and home safety, we're glad that you're here because we've got a lot of folks out there that are business owners, homeowners that may be right in the line of this, of this pebble storm, and

they want to protect their interests. what do you tell them? >> well, you just heard some really good advice from janice. first and foremost, life safety. people need to have a plan, know where they're going to go, have cell phones, make sure you know where all your important documents are. if you don't have an inventory of your business contents, do that now. walk around and take photos of everything. take that with you so if something happens to your property, it's much easier to document losses if you need to make an insurance claim. rick: and bring your insurance documents with you as well, have that as well. >> absolutely. have copies of your credit cards, your passport, your insurance documents, four mortgage. any key documents in a single folder or a box that you know you're going to drive maybe along with jewelry and other important items. it's really important whether irene hits or not in your particular area, use this opportunity as a drill. go ahead and go through the motions, make the plan. figure out what you would take

if you had to get out very quickly and where you going to go. rick: what do you think about these reports that this will not just be a coastal event, but that a lot of areas inland will be affected by this as well? we could be talking about -- and we were just discussing the big cities in the northeast that could be affected. this could be a very big event for people all over the northeast. >> i think it's highly likely we're going to see a lot of wind and a lot of rain up and down the east coast. that wind and rain are going to extend for hundreds and hundreds of miles. if you look at hurricane ike which was the last severe land-falling hurricane in this country, 2008, it hit coastal texas, but there were hurricane-strength winds all the way into ohio where there were a billion and a half dollars of loss. so we're going to see a lot of wind and water, and people need to prepare for that. rick: you know, we always hear these folks who do not want to leave their homes, they want to ride it out. everything that they own, everything that they care about is in that house, and they're just afraid to leave it.

you have to understand where they're coming there in a way n a sense, but at the same time what advice do you have for those people? >> well, first and foremost, one person or a small group of people are not going to defeat mother nature. she's got some pretty awesome forces at her disposal, so we want people to get out if emergency operations people tell you to get out. get out, leave. if you want a shelter in the place, if it's too late to evacuate and you have to shelter in place, there are things that you can do to button up your house to make it a little bit safer like making sure if you don't have impact-resistant windows, you can put up plywood coffer. by the way, masking tape does not help. if you've got dual-pane or impact-resistant windows, that's great. ing anyawn furnure, pl equipment, me you car sideanhing that cabe lifted up by the win and town against your house otherwise actingas a missile, move those things under cover and secure

them ri: od stuff, julie. president and ceo of the insurance institute for business and home safety. thanksgain thas ve muc nna:th reall resoted, didn't it? at julieust said abtone or two people not defti ther nature. th reallyits home. harris, of course, all of our views ve bn watcng is big story not only just here on the st coast,but there's implications also natnwide as our whole travel system could be affected by this. a lot going on. what are people sang? >> reporter: people are putting up eizip co z, jenna, to find out exalyhich areas will get hurt the mt. and oula geseally touched on a big issue that's on the chat right now, and that has to do with the inland impact of this. d, you know, people just want to know how far inland iit gointo go,so there putting up their zip codes which is a new trend i had not seen. get to it by going to foews.com anjueneath the top storon our home page is a

click that says "happening now"'s live chat, america's asking. click on it, we'd love to read your comments. i'm forwarding some of these to janice dean because many of them are for her. hello, janice, i'm going to be in d.c. this weekend, what to expect? that's from randy arnold. he just wants to know exactly what's going to happen. a lot of people are vacationing still, this is the last run-up to labor day weekend, and they're wondering what is this going to be like? while you're on our page, check out your choice in all of this in the terms of the must-see video of the day. if you go about halfway down on the right-hand side of the page, you'll see which story you'd like to choose. there's a guy who was having a beer with some friends and came up with this idea of flying in this flying machine from england to australia. he's paraplegic. and you've got to see this story if you want to, click on it. or some kids get the ride of their lives on their school bus one morning when there starts to be a fire and explosion. we've got the video of that. and this one is actually already

getting clicked on. we're going to take a look at a tiny robot that's designed to keep our military and police out of danger. it look like science fiction, but it's real. which one do you want to see most? "happening now" comes right back. jenna: harris, more on that in just a second. we have to pay attention to some of the other stories, weather-related, across the country. wisconsin experiencing some -- several tornadoes tearing through parts of the state. check out this new video showing a funnel cloud forming right along the road. emergency management officials are trying to access the scope of the damage. several people were injured there, so while we concentrate on the east coast, we're paying attention across the middle of this country as well. sometimes the best way for us to tell a story is, of course, with your images. send us any pictures and video to u report at foxnews.com. we're going to try to get some of those images up on the air sometime this hour if we have some good ones, we always do. please make sure you stay safe, but we appreciate you helping us

coffer the news. rick? rick: intense fight anything the streets of tripoli, the situation there changing by the minute, and we're getting a lot of conflicting reports, rebels going door to door hunting down the dictator who is, apparently, still on the run. we'll have a live report straight ahead. alsoings another aftershock hits the east coast, and the damage from the initial quake appears to be much worse than expected. we'll have an update. [inaudible conversations] it': your nutritional needs can go up when you're on the road to recovery. proper nutrition can help you get back on your feet. three out of four doctors recommend the ensure brand for extra nutrition. ensure clinical strength has revigor and thirteen grams of protein to protect, preserve, and promote muscle health. and immune balance to help support your immune system. ensure clinical strength... helping you to bounce back. ensure! nutrition in charge!

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jenna: well, cities and towns along the east coast are picking up the pieces after that rare earthquake this week. residents in some areas sleeping in shellers because of -- shelters because of structural concerns in their homes or apartment buildings. the cost related to the damage is, actually, in the millions of dollars anrising which you might not expect given the fact that we didn't have a lot of reports of injuries or damage right after that earthquake, and we had another early morning earthquake just today, harris. so there's a lot more to this story. >> reporter: you make an excellent point.

we really had not gotten a true assessment of how much damage there is. now that's starting to roll in. so the update to the story is twofold. one, let's start with the damage and the incredible pictures because we're learning more about that crack in the washington monument, and you're seeing now, obviously, some surveillance camera inside of a grocery center, the epicenter in virginia, and we have seen some of the damage as it was happening and the stuff on the store shelves, so on and so forth. but away from all of this and in some of the areas of washington, d.c. where really the cost is going to rack up into the millions of dollars as some of our biggest structures have sustained some damage. and you mentioned the earthquake. now, here's the other part of the breaking news this morning. it was a magnitude 4.5. scientists from the u.s. geological survey are saying, obviously, it's not uncommon to have aftershocks, and this was the strongest earthquake to strike the east coast since world war ii, so they're expecting some. but here's the good news. they actually have seen fewer than what they had expected from that 5.8 magnitude earthquake

that hit on tuesday. but we're feeling some. and anytime you have industrial damage, especially something as tall as the washington monument, they're concerned about how much more damage could be done in all of these aftershocks. so far a number of them remarkably low. scientists saying today, though, we could feel them for weeks and months to come. jenna: jerry's asking hurricanes, earthquakes, what's next? we feel for you, jerry, we feel the same way. more on all these stories as we get them. thanks, harris. >> reporter: sure. >> you got to destroy all countries, and now we can build our country. now he is is big rat in africa. ♪ rick: celebrations in the capital city of libya, and we are now hearing reports that libyan rebels have got gadhafi surrounded in tripoli as fighting ranges on. -- rages on. we're also hearing gadhafi is urging forces to fight and destroy the rebels.

dominicty anial hi -- di-natale has just crossed the border, and he joins us live. what are you seeing, dominic? >> reporter: at the moment the border's very calm even though there is a constant flow of refugees and people just trying to escape the violence. a lot of people here at the border are very nervous for the fact they're not convinced the rebels can really pin gadhafi down at this time, nor, indeed, do they have the capacity to fully remove the resistant loyalists effectively. so a lot of people trying to get away from that, they're coming in and bringing their families, some are going straight back and bringing more people back, as many as they can. i'd say there's a few thousand crossing at the moment. this is by no means a refugee crisis, but it is just increasing in numbers, the volumes of people coming across, and can it's been happening for the past couple of years. with regards to the latest audio message coming out of gadhafi, he's called on libyan women and children to purify tripoli.

libyans, he says, must fight and and destroy the rebels. in fact, the supporters and the sweeping majority in the country, and there'll be no safe place for the rebels. some people interpreting that as a desperate message by calling on women and children or, indeed, just more of the madman's ramblings as someone said to me just a few minutes ago. clearly, at the moment the fight still goes on, and the rebels have been wrong with regards to previous arrests of the gadhafi family in the past few days, rick. rick: dominic di-natale who has just crossed into libya, he's on his way to tripoli, dominic, thank you very much. we'll have plenty more rightwe after this, don't go away. [ sighs ] forget it. [ male announcer ] there's more barbeque time in every bag of kingsford charcoal. kingsford. slow down and grill. whose non-stop day starts with back pain... and a choice. take advil no and maybe up to four in a day.

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rick: a fox news alert and just as people up and down the east coast are being told to prepare for hurricane irene, expected to arrive sometime this weekend,

the military is preparing as well, and we have just gotten word from the pentagon that all military installations in the projected path are taking steps to prepare for the storm. in norfolk, virginia, you might have seen these pictures today, 27 naval vessels have been sent out to sea, 28 have been put in safe harbor including submarines. that all began around 8:00 this morning, and that will continue through the day. a total of 101,000 national guard are available up and down the eastern seaboard. they are ready to respond if need be, and marine corps base camp lejeune has said, quote, destructive weather condition four meaning destructive weather is coming sometime in the next 72 hours. so the military is preparing, you should be preparing as well. and we'll keep following the path of hurricane irene right here on fox. jenna: well, some economists say the economy appears to be stuck in a vicious cycle. it can't recover without consumer spending, and consumers don't want to spend when they're

worried about their jobs. this week's latest numbers show 417,000 people filed new claims for benefits, that's 5,000 more than the previous week, still an uncomfortably high level for many, and there are new signs that the back to school season, back to school shopping season is not where retailers, investors, economists would like it to be. let's talk to kristin benen, she's the president of the talented brand llc. this is the time of year people have to go out and shop, so it's a good gauge of where we are as far as feeling about the economy. what is the back to school season telling us? >> the book to school selling season is telling us it's very dismal for consumers right now. this used to be a big pop in retailing and something that everyone looked forward to doing, it's become very mundane, people don't want to look forward to. so holiday shopping and back to school shopping are more like a burden now as opposed to being a big pop for the economy. jenna: a burden to go shopping?

>> can you imagine? jenna: we can definitely relate to that. we hear so many reports of plans being presented over the next several weeks whether it's the jobs plan by the president, we just heard reports today maybe about a housing plan. what do you think can be done to inspire consumers right now, and should we be willing to be inshired by -- inspired by new ideas of how to recover in this economy? >> the only thing that's going to inspire consumers out there are jobs. people need to get back to work, get back with their lives, need to not be so fearful. so until we fix the housing situation or the employment situation, it's really going to be tough out there for everyone. everything is interconnected. so if consumer doesn't feel good, the economy's not going to feel good, and we see that evidenced every day. also this new mortgage refinancing plan that the president is coming up with is one small glimmer of hope, i think, that he's finally starting to get it just a little bit. so that's a great plan that i hear out there, and i hope that something like that comes to

fruition. the american public needs that. jenna: as soon as we get through the back to school season, as we mentioned, then you're in the holiday season. this is also a very important time for the economy. as far as what you're seeing when you're out in the stores and some of the research that you're doing, where are the best deals for consumers? >> you cannot beat walmart, and there was an article published this week that walmart's prices are still far below target. i love target, i'm a target shopper, i'm a target girl, but at the end of the day if you really went to save a lot of money, go to walmart. can't beat it. we talk about this bifurcated retail, so the super high end is doing really well and the super low end is doing well. anything the middle is having a rough time. unless you're buying an apple product or shopping at kohl's or walmart or target, everything else is stuck in the middle. jenna: do you think this is a new reality for us as far as where the american consumer is? >> i do. consumers are buying close to

need now. so there really isn't a back to school selling season. what do i need now? kids' feet grow faster than paychecks, so it's all about what does my kid need to get in the door at school? new pair of shoes, new backpack. and, unfortunately, you can see it with stock performance, you can see it just going to the mall. all of our shopping habits have changed, unfortunately. jenna: we've had quite a few years to change that. it's funny, i was just talking to rick's daughters about their new schools they got for school, the light-up kind. [laughter] very fancy, but their feet were growing, so it was a necessary purchase. kristin, always great to have you on. thank you very much. >> stay dry. jenna: we'll try. [laughter] rick: and breaking news now out of libya. the head of-in ya's rebel government -- libya's rebel government is making the diplomatic rounds in europe, and he is pleading for the release of frozen assets to help stabilize the country and restore critical services like schools and hospitals where they

desperately need help there. wendall goler live at the state department with more on this. >> reporter: hi, rick. the u.s., europe, in fact, much of the international community have been trying to keep libya from suffering the economic and societal collapse that iraq went through after the fall of saddam hussein. but until the rebels take tripoli and actually control the country, the u.n. can't establish a mission there. in fact, the u.n. is not supposed to free up frozen libyan assets until there's a new government to give the money to. but the head of the rebel movement says his people can't wait that long. big meeting going on in istanbul right now, the 30-nation libya contact group where rebel leaders who include a number of ambassadors who served under moammar gadhafi have been asking countries to free up frozen libyan assets. earlier he met with the italian prime minister who agreed to free up about $500 million in

libyan assets in that country. debrill says libya needs five billion to keep the country from going into chaos. >> all those priorities cannot be carried out by the new government which under construction or under composition right now without having immediately the necessary money to fulfill all those priorities. >> reporter: most public workers in be libya haven't been paid in four or five months. rebel leaders say they need to keep police officers and firefighters on the job to repair damaged oil facilities in addition to providing money for food and medical supplies. the u.s. has been trying for more than two weeks now to get the u.n. committee that monitors libyan sanctions to free up about a billion and a half dollars in u.s. assets, that represents about half the cash gadhafi had stashed in this country. there's a meeting of the u.n. security council at 3:00 this afternoon, and officials say if south africans don't agree to release the money by then, the

security council will, basically, bipass them and provide the money to the libyan rebels. rick? rick: wendall goler, thanks. jenna: a brand new report from the pentagon shedding light on china's new and improved military capabilities. why it's causing some alarm, just ahead. plus, even though he just announced, texas governor rick perry is leading a good chunk of polls for the gop's choice for president. but how about a third party candidate? our next guests say it could be a game changer, and it's a distinct possibility. we have that just ahead. [ jon ] up in alaska, we find the best sweetest crab for red lobster we can find. [ male announcer ] hurry into cbfest for 3 crab entrees under $20 likour crab and seafood bake... orur snow crab and crabutter shrimp. offer ends soon. my name's jon forsythe and i sea food differently. [ slap! slap! slap! slap! slap! ] [ male announcer ] your favorite foods fighting you? fit back fast with tums. calciumich tums goes to work in seconds.

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ask your rheumatologist how you can defend against and help stop further joint damage with humira. jenna: fox news alert. taking you live to new jersey where the new jersey governor chris christie is currently talking and talking about a state of emergency he is issuing for the state of new jersey in advance of hurricane irene. we told you just at the top of 11:00 eastern time that the north carolina governor did the same thing. and what this does, it allows certain resources to be put out in preparation for this storm, hurricane irene that we are watching so closely as it edges towards the united states. we have a state of emergency in parts of north carolina. now a state of emergency in the state of new jersey. more news as we get it. rick: texas governor rick perry jumping into the lead as the new republican

frontrunner in the race for president and i was only been in the race for a few weeks. the latest gallup poll gives him 12 point lead over mitt romney who had been in the lead. there could be room for a third party candidate. in today's op-ed in "the wall street journal" we have a couple of guests written a solid majority of americans are looking for alternatives to the two-party system. 57% of all respondents says there is a need for a third party. joining us the authors of that op-ed, former clinton pollster doug schoen and former pollster pat caddel. 57 of all respondents, this is republicans and democrats alike? >> as pat and i have written there is prerevolution situation in america. mainstream of american voters, all parties all ideologies given up on the established arrangements. they're negative to the president. negative to congress and they want alternatives,

hence the number you report. rick: pat, we saw what ross perot did to bush 41's re-election bid. we saw the role that ralph nader played in 2000. if there is to be a third party can did, is -- candidate is it from the right and or from the left and who is affected by it? >> how about from the center? in 1992 ross perot was running on peak day before he blew himself the day of the california primary he was leading in states with over 400 electoral votes. he won exit poll in democratic primary and republican voters. he was drawing from both sides. the difference between a third party winner and a third party spoiler is a question can they draw from democrats and republicans alike? most of the spoilers take from one side or the other. we're in a whole different moment here. i've studied alienation in politics since 1972. when you have over 3/4 of the american people saying

that the government is not operate with the consent of the governed, the very basis of our american revolution, that is why you have a revolutionary moment. that is the makings of we want something else and it's about leadership and it is the fear and specter of decline that drives it. rick: doug, i've been in the chat for our show and a lot of the folks who are weighing in on this think it would be terrible for the republican candidate, whomever it may be if there was a third party. let's say if ron paul, for example, who has got such a really enthusiastic base of support. >> right. rick: if he doesn't get the party's nomination and runs as a third party candidate that would be disasterous and would lead to an obama re-election. how do you see it? >> what pat and i are talking about is a centrist ticket. americans elect the organization that sponsored the polling, you're talking about is going to have online convention and run a bipartisan ticket. and if we have a true centrist alternative, we have the capacity for americans elect to bring together voters from the right, the left, the

democrats, the republicans and independents, to draw, i think, from both sides. you know what? it is unclear who is going to benefit more or be hurt more. bottom line i think the american people benefit with more choice and a greater voice. rick: let me ask you both quickly in the time we have left about rick perry's numbers. and we'll put the polls up on the screen. we mentioned at the top he has shot to the lead here ahead of mitt romney, ahead of everybody else in the pack. pat, is this because he's the new guy on the stump or because he has got a real shot? >> well, i think obviously he has a real shot. obviously me points to the weakness of the front runner, mitt romney, which doug and i have been saying for some time. i hadn't thought he was very strong candidate. i don't think the field has been strong. now the question is perry someone who will run away with this or is the howard dean of 2012, who is winning hearts of the right right now but in the end, ends up being taken over by more establishment candidate, who

everyone dismisss? that's the question. he has only been in the race a week. we'll have to wait months to see that. don't count anybody's chickens too soon. rick: doug, what do you think, do these numbers stick for perry? >> i think fair question. bottom line they reflect the president's own weakness. whether perry is going to pass the smell test of credibility, is anyone's guess but what we've been seeing on the republican side, each of their front-runners, donald trump, michele bachmann, mitt rommey, come and go. it all reflects uncertainty with the republican field. uncertainty with the president. and as pat and i wrote today in the journal, a desire for a centrist bipartisan alternative. rick: urge people, go, ahead, pat, last word. >> most of all new leadership and new vision. something that will move america to greatness not just managing decline what we seem to be doing. rick: we were at gop debate we monitored for

foxnews.com. hope to do that with you again next time around. pat caddel, doug schoen. >> thank you, rick. rick:. jenna: a new pentagon report raising concerns for us here at home. it claims china is working to expand the military in the next nine years. jennifer griffin has details in the pentagon. we heard hints of this before, jennifer, but what are the more surprising revelations maybe some of the allegations in this report that really strike a nerve this time? >> reporter: it is perhaps the steady march towards achieving stealth weaponry. the expanse of the defense budget up 12% this year with no real explanation why china's military is expanding. the record number of space launches. the accusation about china's military essentially being involved in cyber warfare of. page 5 of the report, numerous computer systems around the world including those owned by the u.s. government were target of intrusions some appear to originated within the prc,

the peoples republic china. that report is annual report to congress and mentions cyber attacks eminating from china. what is not mentioned a very important incident where pakistanis showed chinese defense officials the tail of the helicopter left bend whin t bin laden raid. there were stealth abilities associated with the tail and chinese had access to it. jenna: interesting. what is the reaction from china at this time? >> the official state news agency blasted the report calling it an exaggeration. accusing the pentagon of scaremongering. they have come out swinging. we have a statement issued to fox news from the chinese embassy spokesman in washington. it says, quote, we've been against the u.s. side creating such a report as it has been a reflection of a cold war mentality and used as a tool to spread china threat. we hope the u.s. will take

practical steps to work with china for stable and healthy military ties by following the spirit of mutual respect, mutual truss, reciprocity and mutual benefit. it is interesting, jenna, that the report came out, it was five months delayed and it came out days after vice president biden was in china on what was supposed to be a friendly voice it. the pentagon finally issued report yesterday. jenna: lots in the report. jennifer griffin from the pentagon. thank you. rick: end of an era at apple, ceo and cofounder steve jobs resigning from his post yesterday effective immediately. he is the visionary on the iphone, ipad. shibani joshi from fox business network is with with us now. how are investors reacting to the news. >> you would think that the resignation of steve jobs from the ceo spot at apple would cause investors to flee. that is exactly not

happening at this moment. look how shares are faring. apple shares trading lower by a percent right now. many investors believe all this news had been anticipated and some one baked into the news. if you look at the 10-year stock chart of this company you can see why investors may want to tech with apple. you can see the stock growing over 3900% over the last 10 years. and in that decade, it created the ipad, the ipod, the iphone. there is perhaps a signaling going on that its best years are not behind it even though steve jobs is not running right now. rick: i learned of the news that steve jobs was stepping down on my iphone. >> yes. rick: coincidentally enough. what about the innovation at that company? this news, do people think that apple will still be able to deliver the same kind of blockbuster products they have become known for? >> i think there are big questions that remain. i think the road map for the company over the next three to five years remain in

place. we're getting new iphone 5 in october. ipad 3 coming out next year. even a brand new apple tv set, yes an apple tv set expected to come out in 2012. over the next 10 years or so the direction of the company, there are big questions about it. right now everybody seems to be in line, seeming not afraid of the changes happening at the top. in fact jpmorgan issued an equity research report about the whole situation today saying we don't expect much to change in the organization. in our view the far-reaching successes much iphone, ipad, ipod, the macbook, do reflect the work of many and not one. rick, i think that's the whole point. steve jobs does not represent or solely represent the brain power that is apple. there are 40,000 other employees that want to get the credit. rick: shibani joshi with the fox business network. shibani, thank you. >> thanks. jenna: two presidential candidates are taking heat on their stances on evolution. what they're saying and why

it could play a role in the 2012 election. so much talk about the economy but now evolution taking center stage. a new alert that hurricane irene will have impact far beyond the coastline here in the northeast. emergency officials, new warning for folks along the eastern part of the united states just ahead with diabetes, it's tough to keep life balanced.

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jenna: welcome back, everybody. back to some politics now. the dust-up over creationism versus evolution debate between two republican candidates is now sparking a wider debate among the american public. where did this all come from? shannon broom is in washington and has details from washington d.c. >> reporter: jenna, this is getting a lot of attention on the campaign trail today because most of the chatter started because of this. you may remember a youngster talking with governor rick perry in new hampshire shortly after he officially jumped into the 2012 race. the child's mother, could be heard saying why he doesn't believe in science.

perry says evolution has gaps in it and win theory along with creationism. not former challenges jon huntsman tweeted this. to be clear i believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. call me crazy. according to the numbers from gallop huntsman may have been a roundabout a whole lot of americans crazy. 40% say god created humans as we are today. 38% say god is in part of the process but includes some type of evolution. just 16% reported they believe in strict evolution, no involvement by god. how will perry be impacted by the position he has taken? we asked political analyst, larry sabato. >> voters who are activists vote in caucuses and primaries and try to evaluate the candidates and look for little signals about where they may really stand about the decisions they may really make in office. so what perry has done by mentioning creationism, is to send this little signal

to fundamentalists, and it is a signal that says, i'm one of you. >> reporter: sabato also says that huntsman is sending signals as well. he is more moderate and a different kind of mormon than mitt romney. not as devout or strident. ultimately the strategy appeals to moderate republicans. if he makes it out of the primary, huntsman, to independent voters in a general election as well. we'll see which works if either one, jenna. jenna: interesting side story popping up on the way to 2012. by the way i can't help but look over your shoulder and see the capitol as we await hurricane irene. looks like --. >> reporter: nasty day and deteriorating very quickly weatherwise in washington. jenna: we had the political forecast and weather forecast as well. i couldn't help engs it. >> reporter: both very stormy. jenna: shannon bream, thank you very much. rick: dark and raining outside our studios in midtown manhattan. irene is nowhere near us as yet.

we may see some of the effects as we track the storm as it marches toward states along the east coast. some evacuation orders are already underway with more expected. we have the latest projections and preparations for this major storm system coming up.

rick: welcome back to the latest installment in our taking liberties series. a popular man made lake in idaho is at the center after battle between the feds and local homeowners. the fish and wildlife service wants to restrict recreation there ail because of a bird. we have the latest installment of taking liberties. hi, douglas. >> reporter: this possible closure has residents

swapping recipes for bird stew. at the same time they're directing a lot of anger at the federal government. are those them right there? the federal government wants to stop david from doing what he has been doing since he was a kid, namely, boating on lake lowell in central idaho. >> this is basically boating community here. >> that's right. this is boating recreation. people love the lake. >> the purpose of the prohibition according to the u.s. fish and wildlife service is to protect the grie. about, a species of waterfowl. ♪ . ferdinand, who is a count commissioner and residents around napa, idaho are outraged. they recently staged a protest rally. the grieb is not endangered species here. >> no it is not a lot of people think this they are not indigenous here. >> lake lowell is not a

natural lake. it was man made reservoir created by farmers for crops. >> people are mad at us. >> he is a buy ol biologist at lake lowell. he has to obey the priorities refuge improvement act. >> process man tated by congress. it has to be done. >> fish and wildlife representatives say this is a federal reserve. people outside of idaho get to say. >> they want to shut it down not in canyon county. not in idaho. they don't control what happens with this water in this wildlife refuge in this county. >> reporter: the feds say they should have a management plan in place by sometime next year. that's it from here, rick. back to you. rick: douglas, thanks very much. we'll be right back with your must-see moment. don't go away. hey, the new guy is loaded with protein!

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jenna: we asked and you delivered. tracy sent in this picture